Bitcoin range trades as volatility subsides. Will TON, LINK, MKR and XTZ follow?
Bitcoin tried to break out of its range last week, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Bitcoin (BTC) is back inside the range and is trading near the $26,000 level. The price action of the past few days has formed two successive doji candlestick patterns on the weekly chart, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.
Although it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout, the downside may be limited in the near term on expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may eventually approve one or more pending applications for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Former commission chair Jay Clayton sounded confident when he said in a recent interview that “an approval is inevitable.”
In the near term, it is difficult to pinpoint a specific catalyst that could shake Bitcoin out of its range. The lack of clarity about Bitcoin’s next trending move has kept most major altcoins under pressure.
Only a handful of altcoins are showing signs of strength in the short term. Let’s study the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that may start a rally if they break above their respective overhead resistance levels.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is back inside the $24,800 to $26,833 range, but a positive sign is that the bulls continue to buy the dips, as seen from the long tail on the Sept. 1 candlestick.
Although the downsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to bears, the gradually recovering relative strength index (RSI) shows that the bearish momentum may be weakening. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the range at $26,833. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could retest the Aug. 29 intraday high of $28,142.
If bears want to seize control, they will have to sink and sustain the price below $24,800. This is going to be a tough task, as the bulls are likely to defend the level with all their might. Still, if the bears prevail, the pair could plunge to $20,000. There is a minor support at $24,000, but it may not halt the decline.
The bears tried to pull the price below the immediate support at $25,300, but the bulls held their ground. Buyers will next try to build upon their strength by driving the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). If they do that, it will indicate the start of a stronger recovery.
The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) may act as a roadblock, but it is likely to be crossed. That could clear the path for a possible rally to the overhead resistance at $26,833.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price below $25,300 and challenge the vital support at $24,800.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) is in an uptrend, but the bears are trying to halt the up move near the overhead resistance at $2.07.
Both moving averages have turned up, indicating an advantage to buyers, but the overbought levels on the RSI suggest that a minor correction or consolidation is possible. If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, the likelihood of a rally above $2.07 increases. The TON/USDT pair could then soar to $2.40.
Contrarily, a deeper correction could pull the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.58). A strong bounce off this level will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The trend will turn negative if the 20-day EMA support cracks.
The four-hour chart shows that the bulls have been buying the pullback to the 20-day EMA. This remains the key level to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, the pair could retest the local high at $1.98. A break above it could challenge the resistance at $2.07.
On the contrary, if the 20-day EMA support breaks down, it will indicate that traders are rushing to the exit. That could start a deeper pullback toward the 50-day SMA. A bounce off this level could face selling at the 20-day EMA, but if this roadblock is cleared, it will suggest that bulls are back in the driver’s seat.
Chainlink price analysis
Chainlink (LINK) has been trading inside a large range between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past several months. The bears pulled the price below the support of the range on June 10, but they could not sustain the lower levels.
The LINK/USDT pair dropped close to the support of the range on Aug. 17, but the bulls bought this dip, as seen from the long tail on the candlestick. Buyers are trying to start a recovery but are facing resistance near the 20-day EMA ($6.24). Hence, this becomes an important level to look out for.
If buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could start its journey toward the 50-day SMA ($6.95). There is a minor resistance at $6.40, but it is likely to be crossed.
On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could pull the price down to $5.50.
The moving averages have flattened out on the four-hour chart, and the RSI is near the midpoint. This suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. Buyers will have to kick the price above $6.40 to start a new up move. The pair could then rise to $6.87 and later to $7.07.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from $6.40, it will signal that bears are selling on rallies. That may keep the pair range-bound between $5.50 and $6.40 for a while longer.
Related: Bitcoin chart highlights $24.7K as analyst says ‘nothing has changed’
Maker price analysis
Maker (MKR) has taken support near $1,000 and is attempting to resume its uptrend. The bulls are facing resistance at the downtrend line, but a positive sign is that they have kept the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,107).
If the price turns up from the current level, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are viewing dips as a buying opportunity. The bulls will then again try to push the price to $1,370.
Instead, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bears are fiercely defending the downtrend line. The MKR/USDT pair may then slump to the strong support at $980 and eventually to $860.
The four-hour chart shows that the bulls pushed the price above the downtrend line but they are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears have not yet given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
The 20-day EMA is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will make one more attempt to overcome the obstacle at $1,186 and then at $1,227. If this zone is scaled, the rally could reach $1,280.
Conversely, if the price sustains below the 20-day EMA, it could open the gates for a possible decline to the 50-day SMA and then to $1,040.
Tezos price analysis
Tezos (XTZ) has been witnessing a tussle between the bulls and the bears near the strong support at $0.70. The failure of the bears to sink and sustain the price below this level indicates buying at lower levels.
The downsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to bears, but the rising RSI suggests that the bearish momentum is reducing. A close above the 20-day EMA ($0.71) will be the first sign of strength. That could pave the way for a rally to the downtrend line.
This level may act as a formidable hurdle, but if the bulls overcome it, the XTZ/USDT pair may start a new up move. The pair could first rally to $0.94 and subsequently to $1.04. This positive view will be invalidated if the price skids and sustains below $0.66.
The four-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating between $0.66 and $0.69. The crisscrossing moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest that bears have a slight edge. Sellers will try to drag the price to the strong support at $0.66. If this level crumbles, the pair may start the next leg of the downtrend to $0.61.
On the other hand, if the price turns up and rises above $0.69, it will indicate solid buying at lower levels. The pair could then surge to the overhead resistance at $0.74. Buyers will have to thrust the price above the downtrend line to signal the start of a new upmove.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.