Why you need caution trading Bitcoin (BTC/USD) this week
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades at $20,390, a clear price decline since topping $21,000 late last month. There is no doubt that BTC remains resilient against a less reassuring macro outlook. The cryptocurrency has strongly defended the $19,500, which has become a crucial psychological level. Consequently, BTC’s technical outlook remains bullish as long as this level is maintained. But investors may need to exercise caution this week.
The Federal Reserve interest rate decision remains the focal point this week. We already know that inflation has been running higher than estimated. With that in mind, investors have earmarked a 75-basis points rate hike when the Fed issues a statement. The expectation has raised caution in all markets, which has been responsible for the BTC slowdown. A rate hike followed by a hawkish Fed statement could spook markets and force a further price fall.
On the contrary, expectations grew mixed the last one week that Fed may settle for a soft stance. With growing recession fears, analysts projected that the Fed would move slower. For this reason, BTC saw some recoveries to above $21,000.
As the Fed nears its policy decision, mixed expectations may not be good for Bitcoin. That is captured in the price reaction, which has stalled despite remaining stable.
Bitcoin stalls ahead of FOMC decision
Source – TradingView
On the daily chart, Bitcoin met a minor resistance at $21,000. Momentum is weakening, but the MACD indicator remains in the bullish zone.
The 20-day MA crossed above the 50-day MA, suggesting that BTC was heading higher. Both moving averages support the cryptocurrency below.
Should you buy BTC?
The technical indicators and the $19,500 support give a bullish view of the BTC price. However, the sentiment around cryptocurrencies, in general, is mixed. Investors are turning to the Fed statement to assess a bull scenario.
A dovish Fed could be the trigger for BTC to move higher. Similarly, the cryptocurrency could head back to $19,500 on a hawkish Fed. Investors should be patient for now and gauge the BTC price based on the Fed decision.
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